So you’re more than three times as likely to find at least one of each on the turn 1 dredge if you have a 《Golgari Grave-Troll》 than if you have a 《Golgari Thug》. Assuming that all the other dredge cards, 《Narcomoeba》s and 《Prized Amalgam》s are still left in the deck (and that my script is correct), the odds are about 2.7% to 9.5%. In fact, I coded a script that simulates the situation. The way the math works is that the odds of hitting another dredger, an 《Prized Amalgam》 and a 《Narcomoeba》 to get a turn 1 《Prized Amalgam》 into play are much, much less with 《Golgari Thug》 than with 《Golgari Grave-Troll》. Now, let’s consider one of the simplest possible scenarios: playing a turn 1 《Insolent Neonate》 and cracking it. For example, against Affinity there’s a world of difference in whether you cast 《Conflagrate》 before or after they are able to activate 《Steel Overseer》. Also, against many creature decks you really need to find an early 《Conflagrate》 to keep the board from getting out of control. Add all of this together, and it means that you really have to hit a bunch of those together to win the game. 《Prized Amalgam》s don’t do anything at all without the other two, 《Bloodghast》s are usually quite slow, and 《Narcomoeba》s are very small. Then, in addition to the dredgers, you need to hit both the 《Prized Amalgam》s and the 《Narcomoeba》s or the 《Bloodghast》s. I’m a blue mage at heart so I never thought I would say this, but it sucks when you have to draw more cards! First of all, you need to hit another dredger to be able to continue the chain. See, when you start dredging, you have to hit multiple different things to actually get the payoffs. But most people don’t really understand just how much less it actually is. I know, that’s kind of an obvious statement. Dredge 4 is simply much less than dredge 6. The loss of 《Golgari Grave-Troll》 does also weaken the first part of the plan. But when playing, you really do have to take into account the fact that nowadays if you want to win, you must do so quickly. And while you can’t start casting the Trolls anymore, 《Conflagrate》 is enough of a follow up to win the game in the vast majority of the cases. Fortunately, that’s the much more important part. Now she only has that first part of the game plan, putting a bunch of resilient power into play on turns 2-4. The Trolls also provided a way to handily win through one of the most common hate cards, 《Grafdigger's Cage》. What made Dredge the best deck in Modern last year is that it could transition from an amazing early game of putting a bunch of resilient power into play on turns 2-4, to a great mid-/late game of hard casting huge 《Golgari Grave-Troll》s. She doesn’t really have the energy and perseverance to grind through a longer game. One of the biggest differences between now and pre-ban is that nowadays she gets tired more easily. She still suffers some splash damage from people playing graveyard hate for Storm and 《Death's Shadow》, but overall the amount of hate seems to be decreasing and good matchups are becoming more popular. She might not be the supreme queen of the format anymore, but make no mistake, she’s definitely still a force to be reckoned with. But as I started taking her new shortcomings into consideration, I found ways to mitigate them significantly. I had to adjust my expectations of her abilities quite a bit, as she couldn’t do all the stuff she used to be capable of. I’m not going to lie, the beginning was hard.
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